Forecast: 'MIB 3' Set to Vanquish 'Avengers' Over Memorial Day

After three weeks on top, The Avengers will almost certainly have to settle for second place behind MIB 3 over Memorial Day weekend. The sci-fi comedy three-quel, which marks star Will Smith's return to the big screen following a three-and-a-half-year absence, will reach 4,248 theaters, which is the 12th-widest opening ever. Horror flick Chernobyl Diaries will also open nationwide at 2,433 locations, though it's unlikely to drive significant traffic.

It's pretty widely accepted that as of 2008, Will Smith was the undisputed king of the box office. From 1996 to 2008, the Fresh Prince headlined a dozen $100 million movies, which is more than any other actor including Tom Cruise (nine during that same time). That tear began with 1996's Independence Day, which is still Smith's highest-grossing movie at $306.2 million, and ended with Hancock, which earned a whopping $227.9 million in Summer 2008. Unfortunately, Smith's last movie Seven Pounds was one of his rare box office disappointments at just under $70 million, and the former work horse hasn't made an on-screen appearance since.

Included in that phenomenal box office run were the first two Men in Black movies, which earned $250.7 million and $190.4 million, respectively, in 1997 and 2002. While the original movie is a fan favorite, though, the sequel was much maligned in its day and currently holds a terrible 5.8 rating on IMDb. The success of sequels is usually largely dependent on the reception for the previous entry, and in this case that should spell trouble for MIB 3.

That being said, Sony has put together a nice marketing effort in the past month or so. The tagline "Back in Time" underscores the campaign's attempt to demonstrate that the popular series is back, but that this entry is just different enough thanks to the inclusion of time travel. Commercials have also put an emphasis on Josh Brolin's impeccable Tommy Lee Jones impersonation (he plays a younger version of Jones' Agent K), which suggests that this movie does offer something unique. These previews can be a bit disjointed—the production was plagued with delays and rewrites, and if you look hard enough you can almost see the seams—but it's a nit-picky thing that isn't going to affect most movie-going decisions. MIB 3 could also be held back by the fact that The Avengers and Battleship have already done the alien invasion thing to death this Summer, though the Men in Black franchise can at least claim to be one of the progenitors of this craze. Sony is projecting around $80 million for the four-day holiday weekend, though don't be surprised if the movie winds up above this mark.

Aside from its domestic opening, MIB 3 is also reaching most international markets this weekend. Will Smith, Men in Black and 3D are all huge overseas, which suggest that the movie is going to make quite a mark in its opening.

Chernobyl Diaries is the latest scare-fest from Paranormal Activity producer Oren Peli. Those three movies have averaged nearly $100 million at the domestic box office, and Warner Bros. would obviously like to see a similar result for Chernobyl. Unfortunately, those movies had a clear supernatural threat, and made strong use of the now-popular found footage concept. Chernobyl, on the other hand, finds young adults terrorized by a vague, possibly mutant threat, and it's unclear how much if any of the movie is presented as found footage. The movie is at least being pushed as a strong midnight choice—it's playing at 1,300 theaters at midnight—and it's been a while since audiences have had a straight-forward horror option. Still, reaching $20 million for the four-day frame seems very unlikely.

Aside from these nationwide releases, two major movies open in four theaters each this weekend. Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdom has been getting strong marks out of the Cannes Film Festival, where it debuted last week. Anderson's movies aren't for everyone, but he does have a loyal fanbase that even managed to get The Darjeeling Limited to $11.9 million, and Focus Features should be able to capitalize on word-of-mouth to get Moonrise Kingdom to at least the same level in the next few months.

French comedy The Intouchables is the highest-grossing foreign language movie ever with at least $340 million in revenue so far. The movie was obviously a huge hit in native France, though it's also the highest-grossing movie of the year in Germany, and managed to spend at least six weeks in the Top 10 in South Korea. The story, about a friendship between a quadriplegic and a kid from the projects, has clearly resonated with audiences from diverse ethnic and racial backgrounds, and if this doesn't hit it big in the U.S. it will be more a result of poor marketing/distribution and less about the accessibility of the movie.

Also worth noting: after earning $9.7 million in just under three weeks of limited release, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is expanding nationwide in to 1,233 locations this weekend.

Four-Day Forecast (May 25-28)
1. MIB 3 - $84 million
2. The Avengers - $41.7 million (-25%)
3. Battleship - $15.3 million (-40%)
4. Chernobyl Diaries - $14.8 million
5. The Dictator - $11.5 million (-34%)

Bar for Success
A four-day start north of $70 million puts MIB 3 at roughly the same level as most of Will Smith's bigger movies, and that would be a fine start for this three-quel. Chernobyl Diaries can't be expected to reach Paranormal Activity 3 ($52.6 million), but with a prime Summer slot and decent promotion the movie needs to earn at least $15 million this weekend to get a pass.

'American Idol' Loses TV Ratings Crown to Football

 "American Idol" no longer the cultural titan it once was? The numbers are in for last night's season finale. Not even the notoriously kind Judge J.Lo would have been impressed.

For the first time in a long time, “Idol” won’t finish as the top-rated program in primetime. According to preliminary numbers, NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” will go down as this season’s top-ranked program. The NFL game of the week averaged around 20.7 million viewers, while "Idol's" Wednesday edition averaged 19.7 million viewers this season. With big NFL ratings come big numbers for the league. Last December, according to The Hollywood Reporter, “the NFL pre-emptively renewed TV rights deals with CBS, Fox, and NBC for nine years (through 2022) at an average increase of 7 percent per network that will take revenue for the NFL from $1.93 billion annually to $3.1 billion by 2022.”

Wednesday night’s ‘Idol’ finale "delivered a preliminary 6.1/18 among adults 18-49." That's down 32% from last year. Preliminary numbers suggest the finale had 21.5 million viewers. What was once the new hotness has become old and busted. Circle of life, kids.

Industry site Deadline.com points out that this shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Throughout the year, the Fox reality show has been "tracking 30% lower than last season." But it isn't like the show was killing it last season. In fact, last season was (until now) the show's lowest-rated finale.  However, this year’s season finale did have the most votes of any finale, an indication that while the numbers may be dwindling, those who remain are more passionate than ever.

Of course, "American Idol" has been on the air for about a decade, so it's no wonder it's getting a little long in the tooth. New shows with similar setups like "The Voice" are heading in the opposite direction. The NBC competition ended its second season earlier this month with a 16% jump over its debut season. Its Season 2 finale earned 11.6 million viewers.

But its not just “The Voice” that is gunning for the “Idol” demographic. There’s “The X Factor” with former “Idol” judge Simon Cowell. “Duets” with one-time “Idol” winner Kelly Clarkson. And one mustn’t forget Howard Stern on “America’s Got Talent.” “Idol” has a long-term fight on its hands and the star power of J.Lo and Steven Tyler might not be enough. Perhaps another major shakeup is in order. Judge Weird Al, anyone?

Summer Snow Changes the Game for Faith Based Films

American Family Studio is proud to announce the filming of Summer Snow, a dramatic comedy starring David Chisum, Cameron Goodman, Rachel Eggleston, Brett Rice, produced by Dan Atchison and Eric Baird directed by Jeremy and Kendra White.

Summer Snow tells the heart wrenching and hope filled story of Susan Benson’s death, and how it forever changed her husband Dan, and three children’s lives. Forced to find a new “normal,” the Bensons must now re-learn how to be a family without the glue that held them together. The Bensons were always a family of faith, but now that faith has been shaken and they are unsure where God fits into this new reality. But just as God often answers prayer in unique and unexpected ways, Susan provides comfort and words of wisdom when each person needs it most, setting her family on a path of healing and hope.

David Chisum, Cameron Goodman, Garrett Backstrom, with Brett Rice (Forrest Gump, Remember the Titans, Super 8, The Trial, Country Strong, House, and Dis) and introducing, Rachel Eggleston star in this movie. Critics say “This is a breakthrough performance from the entire cast!” “What a refreshing change of pace! Summer Snow is truly a family film.” “Rachel Eggleston’s heartwarming portrayal of Hallie…shines and leaves you smiling.”

Estimated Release Date: October 1, 2012 limited release. Distributed through American Family Studios, and in conjunction with Voice of the Martyrs

Two faith-based movies being filmed in Central Kentucky

Andover Drive residents are experiencing a flurry of filmmaking this month with Summer Snow, a faith-based film being shot in and around Lexington through June 3.

The movie comes from many of the same people involved in October Baby, a faith-based film with an anti-abortion message that played in Lexington in March.

Summer Snow centers on the family of a woman who has died and left behind messages that help guide her survivors on their spiritual journeys.

Its stars include Rachel Eggleston, a busy child actress whose recent roles have included guest shots on House and Justified, and Brett Rice, whose credits include Sheriff Pruitt in last year's Super 8 and a high school football coach in Forrest Gump.

According to unit production manager Zach Meiners, the film is being shot entirely in Central Kentucky. A house on Andover Drive will be the primary location for the film, but Meiners said scenes will be shot at Georgetown Community Hospital; Asbury Seminary in Wilmore; a downtown Lexington parking garage; and Brookside Elementary School in Nicholasville, after Jessamine County Schools close May 25.

Summer Snow is being filmed in Lexington because sibling co-directors and screenwriters Jeremy and Kendra White are from Wilmore and wanted to film the movie here, Meiners said.

Next week, this will be one of two faith-based films shooting in Central Kentucky. On Monday, Asbury University professor Joshua Overbay will begin shooting As it is in Heaven, a micro-budget film about a cult leader who suffers a crisis of faith and struggles to keep his community together after his end-of-the-world prophecy does not come to pass. The movie will shoot through June 9.

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2012/05/18/2192653/faith-based-movies-being-filmed.html#storylink=cpy

Forecast: 'Battleship' Will Likely Miss 'Avengers'

Three new nationwide releases attempt to dethrone box office sensation The Avengers this weekend, though it's unlikely any of them come very close. Battleship has the best shot at 3,690 locations, but the rampant cynicism surrounding the project should keep the movie from reaching blockbuster levels. Meanwhile, What to Expect When You're Expecting tries to reach female audiences at 3,021 theaters, while The Dictator will attempt to build on its decent $4.18 million Wednesday opening at 3,008 venues.

Battleship is the third Hasbro product to get the big-budget, big-screen treatment in the past five years following Transformers and G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra. All three Transformers movies made over $300 million at the domestic box office, while G.I. Joe earned a respectable $150.2 million. Those movies were logical extensions of character-driven action figure brands, though, and they had already been proven from a story-telling perspective with comic books and animated TV series. Battleship, on the other hand, is adapted from a strategy-based board game where two players attempt to sink each other's NAVY ships: there are no characters, and there are definitely no aliens. As a result, this adaptation has generated almost non-stop negative press since its inception.

In an attempt to get some positive momentum and take advantage of April holidays in Europe, Battleship has already opened in most overseas markets and has earned a solid $215.3 million through Sunday. That's not an overly impressive number, though, and any buzz that would have generated has been counteracted by scathing reviews out of English-speaking countries like the United Kingdom and Australia. The tune didn't change much when American critics got a look: while reviews commend the movie for its technical proficiencies, it gets slammed in nearly every other department and currently has a poor 37 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

Battleship does at least look like it delivers the goods in the action department, and big-budget alien invasion spectacles usually perform well at the Summer box office (though Cowboys & Aliens is an example of a recent disappointment). Unfortunately, the movie is running headfirst in to the path of The Avengers, which targets a similar audience with its alien invasion storyline. Battleship probably won't outright bomb this weekend, but an opening above $50 million looks almost impossible at this point.

To counterprogram the noisy, effects-driven action of The Avengers and Battleship, Lionsgate is releasing pregnancy comedy What to Expect When You're Expecting. The strategy of creating a story based on a popular self-help book and populating the movie with a likeable ensemble cast was just successfully pulled off last month with Think Like a Man ($82.8 million so far). That movie had date night appeal, though, while a movie about the challenges of pregnancy isn't exactly something men are going to be eager to see. To combat that, Lionsgate's campaign has put a large emphasis on the movie's "Dudes Group," which is basically a bunch of dads goofing off with their young children when the wives aren't around. These ads never quite connected, though, and they distracted from the central story about a handful of expectant couples. In recent weeks, the focus has turned back towards the main women in these couples, though, and the movie should do solid business as a result.

The Dictator opened to $4.18 million on Wednesday, which rules out any possibility that it will be a MacGruber-esque flop (that data does include some late Wednesday grosses, though, which Paramount is unfortunately not reporting separately). The audience skewed male (65 percent) and younger (56 percent under the age of 25), indicating that star Sacha Baron Cohen's outrageous comedy is once again appealing to college-aged males. Unfortunately, it's still unclear if his shtick is going to play outside of that group this time around. Politically subversive movies don't generally jive with audiences—Team America: World Police only earned $32.8 million in 2004—and The Dictator's not-very-kind views towards gays, minorities and women are a tough sell. It is the first R-rated comedy of Summer, though, and the title character skews much closer to Borat ($128.5 million) than Bruno ($60.1 million), so it could still wind up playing well.

Forecast (May 18-20):
1. The Avengers - $53.2 million (-48%)
2. Battleship - $38.7 million
3. What to Expect - $21.9 million
4. The Dictator - $17.5 million ($24.5 million five-day)
5. Dark Shadows - $14.6 million (-51%)

Bar for Success
Battleship is a big-budget action movie with a recognizable brand and a huge marketing campaign behind it, so it really ought to be earning at least $50 million in its opening weekend. What to Expect When You're Expecting and The Dictator are both in fine shape if they get to $25 million for their three-day and five-day weekends, respectively.

Fox renews 'Touch,' cancels 'The Finder,' 'Alcatraz'

Fox has picked up three comedies and two dramas for the 2012-13 season, stealing a familiar face from NBC and nabbing Kevin Bacon in the process. In addition, the network renewed its Kiefer Sutherland-led drama "Touch" and canned "Alcatraz" and "Bones" spinoff "The Finder."

The network may be losing a grumpy doc with "House" ending its run this season, but it's staying in the medical practice with "Mob Doctor." "My Boys" alum Jordana Spiro stars as a young female thoracic surgeon who becomes indebted to the South Chicago Mafia and is forced to moonlight as a "mob doctor" while also working full time at Chicago's most prominent hospital.

Fox has also inched its way forward in the "Six Degrees" game, giving a series order to the "The Following." The series, from "The Vampire Diaries'" Kevin Williamson, features Kevin Bacon as a former FBI agent searching for a serial killer, played by James Purefoy, who has created a cult of killers.

Meanwhile, not to be outdone by the heap of comedies picked up by NBC, Fox is adding some more funny to its programming.

"Ben & Kate" is based on the life of writer/executive producer Dana Fox's ("Couples Retreat," "The Wedding Date") brother, Ben, and centers on a single mother whose brother moves in to help raise her baby.

"Goodwin Games," from "How I Met Your Mother" scribes Carter Bays, Craig Thomas and Chris Harris, centers on siblings who inherit their late father's fortune. The cast includes Becki Newton ("Ugly Betty") and Scott Foley ("Grey's Anatomy," "Felicity").

And "The Office's" Mindy Kaling makes the move to the top-rated network in "It's Messy," in which she plays a young doctor trying to balance her personal and professional life. The project, which she is to write, executive produce and star in, will mark her departure from "The Office."

Then there are the faces of this season to contend with.

Sutherland's return to TV post-"24" in "Touch," a drama about a widower who struggles to connect with his mute son who has unique abilities, seemed enough to propel the drama into a hit for the network. The series previewed in January after "American Idol" and drew 12 million viewers. It retained much of the viewership when it returned two months later in its regular Thursday time slot but has seen those numbers dip since.

Meanwhile, the J.J. Abrams-backed "Alcatraz," a mystery drama about the infamous San Francisco prison and its inmates, struggled to sustain its solid launch numbers -- 10 million viewers, with a 3.3 rating in the advertiser-coveted 18-49 demographic. Its finale drew just 4. 7 million viewers and a 1.5. But the network still has ties with Abrams -- at least for one more season, having renewed cult favorite "Fringe" for a fifth and final season.

And "The Finder" couldn't find its footing with viewers, despite its connection to "Bones." Up against pedigreed series such as "Grey's Anatomy" in its Thursday slot, it soon found a new home on Fridays at 8 -- which did little to help its cause.

When Show Tracker spoke to creator Hart Hanson last week, he was hopeful but realistic about the series' chances of making it to a second season.

"The funny thing is, my life would be easier if "The Finder" wasn't renewed," Hanson said.  "If 'The Finder' doesn’t go, I could actually go on a little vacation with my wife for maybe a week or 10 days. And if it does go, I can't -- and yet, sadly, I still want it to get picked up."

He added: "It was not a priority of the network -- I say that without bitterness, by the way. They have to make their decisions. It's like triage. They have to decide what's gonna work best for them early on and put those promotional dollars behind that."

More renewals and pickups are expected in coming days as the network prepares to make its presentation to advertisers next week.

Forecast: Depp, Burton Open in 'Shadow' of 'Avengers'

Dark Shadows, the eighth collaboration between director Tim Burton and star Johnny Depp, is the sole new nationwide release this weekend, and it's opening at a substantial 3,755 locations. Unfortunately, the movie has absolutely no chance of stealing the top spot away from The Avengers, which is coming off a record-setting $207.4 million opening weekend.

Dark Shadows is based on the daytime soap opera of the same name which ran from 1966 to 1971. Vampire Barnabas Collins, played by Depp in the movie, didn't appear on the show until the second season in 1967, but the character's presence was a major reason why the show was fairly popular at the time. Dark Shadows does maintain a bit of a cult following to this day, and some older audience members remember it fondly, but the source material connection isn't the main attraction for the upcoming Warner Bros. release.

Instead, the driving force behind most attendance this weekend will be to see what Burton and Depp, two of the most prolific collaborators in modern cinema, have come up with this time. Depp has starred in eight of Burton's movies beginning in 1990, when Depp's role in Edward Scissorhands catapulted him from TV heartthrob to respected big-screen actor. The two are coming off Alice in Wonderland, which is their biggest hit yet with $334.2 million, and they also scored recently with 2005's Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($206.5 million).

With its nearly black-and-white palette and gothic, sporadically violent premise, though, Dark Shadows skews a bit closer to R-rated Burton and Depp fare like Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street and Sleepy Hollow (though Dark Shadows is PG-13). Sleepy Hollow was a hit with $101.1 million in 1999, but Sweeney Todd disappointed with just $52.9 million in 2007. Dark Shadows does have more intentional comedy, though, and previews emphasize the fish-out-of-water jokes (Depp's vampire awakens in the 1970s after being imprisoned in a coffin for 200 years) and an outlandish sex scene while mostly avoiding any vampiric violence (or the semblance of a story, for that matter).

Even for somewhat obscure properties, big-budget TV adaptations tend to open to at least $25 million (Land of the Lost is a notable exception), and with Depp and Burton it's easy to think that Dark Shadows will wind up much higher. Unfortunately, the movie is opening in the shadows of The Avengers, and the second weekend of May is a notoriously difficult time to debut. Warner Bros. has released movies on this weekend a few times in the past decade—they got a strong debut from Troy in 2004 ($46.9 million), but stumbled with Poseidon ($22.2 million) and Speed Racer ($18.6 million) in 2006 and 2008. It doesn't help that Dark Shadows is at a middling 44 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, which will probably drive more discerning viewers to check out The Avengers or perhaps even The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.

Dark Shadows is also opening in 42 overseas markets this weekend, including all major territories except Japan (May 19), Brazil and Mexico (both June 22). On Wednesday, the movie earned a very solid $770,000 in France.

With its rare "A+" CinemaScore and solid holds throughout the week, there's been speculation that The Avengers could score a second weekend north of $100 million. Unfortunately, when a movie opens that big ($207.4 million, in this case), it's always in line for a steep second weekend decline. Every movie that's ever opened above $120 million has dropped at least 50 percent in its second weekend—the best hold among that group came from 2008's The Dark Knight, which fell 52.5 percent to a then-record $75.2 million. If The Avengers equals that, it will just barely miss $100 million. Regardless, it's practically a foregone conclusion that the movie beats Avatar's $75.6 million second weekend record.

Forecast (May 11-13)
1. The Avengers - $95.4 million (-54%)
2. Dark Shadows - $33.3 million

Bar for Success
With Burton and Depp, and a release date to itself, Dark Shadows should be opening to at least $35 million, which would put it at the high-end for TV adaptations.

Forecast: 'The Avengers' Takes Aim at Opening Weekend Record

The 2012 Summer movie season officially gets underway this weekend with what is easily one of the biggest releases of the year. After five movies that in many ways functioned as prequel material, some of Marvel's most-popular superheroes finally team up in The Avengers, which has the seventh-widest opening ever at 4,349 locations. Thanks to these lead-in movies and a killer marketing campaign, anticipation has reached nearly-unprecedented levels, and The Avengers is a lock to score one of the highest opening weekends of all-time.

While the notion of a superhero team-up is fairly common in comic books, it's been a difficult thing to arrange on the big screen. DC Comics has tried for many years to assemble Batman, Superman, and a handful of other characters in a Justice League movie, but that has had numerous false starts and is currently on the backburner. Considering none of the characters had ever had a very successful big-screen incarnation, the prospects for Marvel's The Avengers didn't seem much better.

That all changed in May 2008. Long thought of as a second-tier comic book character, Iron Man surprised many when it opened to $98.6 million. Thanks to strong word-of-mouth (due in no small part to Robert Downey, Jr.'s charismatic lead performance), the movie went on to earn $318.4 million, which at the time made it the highest-grossing comic book adaptation that didn't involve Spider-Man.

Iron Man's extraordinary success made The Avengers a viable option, and even after The Incredible Hulk earned an underwhelming $134.8 million, Marvel still moved ahead with bringing the other elements of the franchise to life. Though it was a bit of a creative disappointment, the sequel to Iron Man earned $312.4 million in 2010, and then last year Thor and Captain America: The First Avenger scored a fine $181 million and $176.6 million, respectively.

Aside from actually making money, these five Marvel movies have served as the most elaborate and expensive marketing campaign of all-time. That alone is enough to get fanboys all hot-and-bothered for The Avengers, and Disney's marketing team has done a fantastic job making this a must-see for general audiences as well. Previews establish the movie's high stakes and extraordinary nature by showing that a global threat has forced this dysfunctional team of superheroes together. They also pack in plenty of conflict, comedy (mostly from Downey, Jr.), and tons of outrageous action. Also, while it probably doesn't matter too much for a movie of this size, more discerning audiences may be swayed by a strong 92 percent fresh rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes.

The Avengers has already been winning over foreign audiences, as it opened in many markets last week and has earned a huge $281.1 million through its first eight days in theaters. That's more than any of these characters' previous movies earned in their entire run with the exception of Iron Man 2, though it will pass that movie's $311.5 million on Friday.

The first weekend of May is one of the most lucrative release dates each year, and it's proven to be a great time to open a comic book adaptation. The first Spider-Man movie kicked off this trend when it set a new opening weekend record of $114.8 million in 2002. Spider-Man 3 reclaimed that record for the series when it debuted to $151.1 million on the same weekend in 2007. If The Avengers can simply match Spider-Man 3's attendance levels, it will top Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2's current record of $169.2 million thanks to ticket price inflation and 3D premiums. Since it was accounting for an incredible 94 percent of ticket sales on Fandango as of Wednesday morning, this record definitely seems to be within reach.

While no other movie dares to open nationwide against The Avengers, there is at least one new alternative for audiences in big cities. Geriatric comedy The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel has already earned $70 million overseas, and Fox Searchlight is releasing it at 27 locations this weekend. The movie will serve as nice counterprogramming for older audiences who aren't interested in having their eardrums blown out by The Avengers, and it could wind up finding a bit of success in the long run.

Weekend Forecast (May 4-6):
1. The Avengers - $172.5 million
2. Think Like a Man - $8.6 million (-51%)
3. The Pirates! - $6.6 million (-41%)
4. The Hunger Games - $6.3 million (-42%)
5. Five-Year Engagement - $5.8 million (-45%)

Bar for Success
Iron Man 2's $128.1 million debut translates to over $140 million when adding 3D ticket pricing to the equation. That mark is about the lowest The Avengers can open and still get a pass.