Saturday, June 23, 2012

Supreme Court Rules Against FCC Profanity, Nudity Policy

The Supreme Court on Thursday ruled against the FCC's policy regulating curse words and nudity on broadcast television.

In an 8-0 decision, the high court threw out fines and sanctions imposed by the Federal Communications Commission. The case involved some uncensored curse words and brief nudity on various networks,

"Because the FCC failed to give FOX or ABC fair notice prior to the broadcasts in question that fleeting expletives and momentary nudity could be found actionably indecent, the Commissions' standards as applied to these broadcasts were vague," the Supreme Court said in its opinion.

The court said the FCC is "free to modify its current indecency policy" in light of the ruling.

The justices, though, declined to issue a broad ruling on the constitutionality of the FCC indecency policy. Instead, the court concluded only that broadcasters could not have known in advance that obscenities uttered during awards show programs and a brief display of nudity on an episode of ABC's NYPD Blue could give rise to sanctions. ABC and 45 affiliates were hit with proposed fines totaling nearly $1.24 million.
It was the second time the court has confronted, but not ruled conclusively on, the FCC's policy on isolated expletives. Justice Anthony Kennedy said in his opinion for the court that "it is unnecessary for the court to address the constitutionality of the current policy."

The case arose from a change in the FCC's long-standing policy on curse words. For many years, the agency did not take action against broadcasters for one-time uses of curse words. But, following several awards shows with cursing celebrities in 2002 and 2003, the FCC toughened its policy after it concluded that a one-free-expletive rule did not make sense in the context of keeping the air waves free of indecency when children are likely to be watching television.

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Forecast: Cruise, Sandler Indulge in 80s Nostalgia This Weekend

The box office gets a heavy dose of 80s nostalgia this weekend thanks to musical Rock of Ages, which utilizes 80s rock tunes for all of its songs, and R-rated comedy That's My Boy, which finds Adam Sandler sporting an 80s mullet. This isn't the first time that a June weekend has harkened back to that decade: in 2010, The Karate Kid remake and The A-Team adaptation opened to a combined $81 million. There's virtually no chance that Rock of Ages and That's My Boy deliver a similar result, and Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted will likely hold on to first place.

Rock of Ages
and That's My Boy feature two of the most bankable stars in recent movie history, though Tom Cruise's portrayal of fictional rock legend Stacey Jaxx isn't likely to have a huge impact on the initial box office haul for Rock of Ages. Cruise was one of, if not the, biggest box office draw in the world up until a few years ago, when some poor movie choices and bizarre behavior seemed to weaken his brand a bit. He's coming off a monster success in Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, though, which set a new record for Cruise with over $693 million worldwide.

The Stacey Jaxx character is outside of Cruise's action star wheelhouse, though, and Rock of Ages advertising has almost completely ignored his presence in the movie (he makes an appearance in all of the material, but Cruise's name is rarely referenced and the character's signature long hair and sun glasses makes the actor hard to recognize). Instead, the focus of the Rock of Ages campaign has been the retro setting and the catchy music, and advertisements attempt to assure audiences that the movie is "Nothin' But a Good Time." This has been effective enough, and fans of the Broadway production and jukebox-style TV shows like American Idol should be able to drive the movie to an opening level similar to recent Summer musicals Hairspray and Mamma Mia! (both over $27 million).

With advertisements putting Adam Sandler front-and-center, star power will be much more relevant for That's My Boy, which opens at 3,030 locations this weekend. Beginning with The Waterboy in 1998, Sandler has had 12 movies reach $100 million at the domestic box office, which is the most for any lead actor during that period in time. However, he's coming off one of his worst box office performers ever in Jack and Jill, which debuted last November and ultimately earned $74.2 million. That's not enough to declare that Sandler's lost his mojo, but it's definitely possible that his shtick is growing a bit tired.

In That's My Boy, Sandler echoes some of his star-making roles (Happy Gilmore, Billy Madison) by playing a crude, belligerent man-child. This movie goes a step further with most of its antics, though, and as a result was tagged with an R rating. That could be a plus, since there's clearly demand for R-rated comedy (The Dictator didn't do the trick), and since fans of Sandler's early work are probably old enough to make it to That's My Boy. At the same time, Sandler has been working almost exclusively in PG-13 territory through his entire career, and as of late he's been a big draw for family audiences who won't be attending his newest movie in any significant way. Even with the clever Father's Day tie-in, it's unlikely That's My Boy gets close to the $30-million-plus that most of his movies open to (Sony is modestly projecting something in the high-teen-millions).

Weekend Forecast (June 15-17)

1. Madagascar 3 - $33.8 million (-44%)
2. Rock of Ages - $28.6 million
3. That's My Boy - $24.5 million
4. Prometheus - $23.5 million (-54%)

Bar for Success

As long as it gets close to Hairspray and Mamma Mia! ($27+ million), Rock of Ages will be off to a good start. Giving That's My Boy some leeway due to its R-rating, it's in solid shape at around $25 million.

Friday, June 8, 2012

Forecast: 'Prometheus,' 'Madagascar 3' Go Head-to-Head This Weekend

So far this Summer, it's always been pretty clear which movie would wind up taking the top spot at the box office each weekend. That's definitely not the case this weekend, though, as highly-anticipated sci-fi flick Prometheus squares off against the third installment in DreamWorks' Madagascar series. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted is reaching 4,258 locations, which is the 11th-widest release ever (second-widest for an animated movie behind Shrek Forever After), while Prometheus is no slouch either at 3,394 venues (10th all-time for an R-rated movie). Both movies should earn over $40 million, though from there it's tough to call.

After endless speculation, it's now been made pretty clear to those keeping score—yes, Prometheus is functioning as a prequel to director Ridley Scott's Alien. That movie kicked off the larger Alien franchise when it earned $78.9 million, or the equivalent of $249.1 million adjusting for ticket price inflation, in Summer 1979. James Cameron continued the series with 1986's Aliens ($85.2 million, $181.8 million adjusted), and both Scott and Cameron's outings are widely considered to be classic entries in the sci-fi genre. Unfortunately, the franchise lost some of its luster with disappointing sequels Alien 3 and Alien Resurrection in the 1990s and then with mash-ups Alien Vs. Predator and Aliens Vs. Predator - Requiem in the last decade.

However, even with one recent commercial declaring that "Before Alien, there was Prometheus," the movie's status as a prequel has not been its main selling point. Instead, Prometheus has primarily been sold as an action-packed, thought-provoking original sci-fi movie. Previews mix stunning visuals with a palpable sense of dread (the repeating scream has been a centerpiece of the campaign), and feature one of the year's most intriguing taglines ("The Search for Our Beginning Could Lead To Our End").

Considering it's an "original" sci-fi movie from an acclaimed filmmaker, it calls to mind 2010's Inception and 2011's Super 8, and these comparisons should help moderate expectations surrounding Prometheus's opening a bit. Inception was director Christopher Nolan's follow-up to The Dark Knight and featured stunning imagery, big ideas, and a popular lead actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), but opened to just $62.8 million (a great number, but less than 40 percent of The Dark Knight's $158.4 million). Meanwhile, Super 8 debuted on the same weekend as Prometheus, and only earned $35.4 million initially. That movie's late-game marketing was fairly unremarkable, though, while Prometheus's push remains attention-grabbing, and with 3D premiums attached it could wind up close to Inception's figure.

The movie's R-rating does remain a potential hurdle: while The Matrix Reloaded and 300 opened to $91.8 million and $70.9 million, respectively, big openings for R-rated action movies are rare. In fact, only 11 R-rated movies have ever opened above $50 million. Still, this could a self-fulfilling prophesy: afraid that an R-rating is restrictive, the major studios mostly avoid pumping big money in to R-rated tentpoles.

Even if it doesn't become a huge hit domestically, Prometheus appears well-positioned for a strong foreign run. Through Tuesday, the movie had already earned $46.1 million from 15 markets, and it had great openings last weekend in Russia, the U.K. and France. It expands in to an additional 35 territories this weekend including Australia, South Korea and Taiwan.

While The Avengers and MIB 3 had some traction with family audiences, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted is the first movie this Summer to exclusively target that crucial constituency. The franchise has so far provided some of DreamWorks Animation's biggest hits: the first Madagascar earned $193.6 million in 2005, and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa netted $180 million in 2008. Neither are necessarily beloved by audiences—they both have decent 6.7 ratings on IMDb—but the characters are memorable enough and Paramount's marketing has done a fine job differentiating the third entry with their "Wig Out" campaign.

Unfortunately, animated sequels have been getting pummeled lately in comparison to their predecessors. Last year, well-reviewed Kung Fu Panda 2 opened 21 percent lower than it's well-regarded predecessor, while Happy Feet 2 debuted with only about half as much as the first Happy Feet. Of course, Cars 2 opened a tad higher than the first Cars, and it also added some European flavor, so there's a chance Madagascar 3 winds up close to the last movie's $63.1 million debut. Paramount is currently forecasting around $45 million for the weekend.

Madagascar 3
is also opening in 28 foreign markets this weekend, though most of those aren't in Europe thanks to the start of the Euro Cup. The movie opened to an incredible $3.7 million in Russia on Thursday, which is a new record for an animated release, and it also earned $1.9 million in both South Korea and France. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa wound up grossing $423.9 million overseas, and based on the recent trend for animated sequels the odds are that Madagascar 3 winds up higher.

Weekend Forecast: June 8-10

1. Prometheus - $55.5 million
2. Madagascar 3 - $53.8 million
3. Snow White - $28.7 million (-49%)
4. MIB 3 - $15.2 million (-46%)
5. The Avengers - $11.6 million (-43%)

Bar for Success

With the addition of 3D, Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted really ought to get close to Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa's $63.1 million: $50 million seems like a fair benchmark. Regardless of how impressive the trailers are, R-rated sci-fi isn't really an easy sell, so anything over $40 million is a good start for Prometheus.

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Author Ray Bradbury has died in California

LOS ANGELES – Ray Bradbury, the science fiction-fantasy master who transformed his childhood dreams and Cold War fears into telepathic Martians, lovesick sea monsters, and, in uncanny detail, the high-tech, book-burning future of Fahrenheit 451, has died. He was 91

He died Tuesday night, his daughter said Wednesday. Alexandra Bradbury did not have additional details.
Although slowed in recent years by a stroke that meant he had to use a wheelchair, Bradbury remained active into his 90s, turning out new novels, plays, screenplays and a volume of poetry. He wrote every day in the basement office of his Cheviot Hills home and appeared from time to time at bookstores, public library fundraisers and other literary events around Los Angeles.

His writings ranged from horror and mystery to humor and sympathetic stories about the Irish, blacks and Mexican-Americans. Bradbury also scripted John Huston's 1956 film version of Moby Dick and wrote for The Twilight Zone and other television programs, including The Ray Bradbury Theater, for which he adapted dozens of his works.

"What I have always been is a hybrid author," Bradbury said in 2009. "I am completely in love with movies, and I am completely in love with theater, and I am completely in love with libraries."

Bradbury broke through in 1950 with The Martian Chronicles, a series of intertwined stories that satirized capitalism, racism and superpower tensions as it portrayed Earth colonizers destroying an idyllic Martian civilization

Monday, June 4, 2012

Consumers Poised To Pay More For Web-Delivered Video Than For Discs: Report

Spending for DVDs and Blu-ray discs is falling so fast that 2012 likely will be first year when consumers will pay more to buy and rent movies via the Internet, according to a report today from IHS Screen Digest Video Intelligence Service. The research firm says that the average household will spend $123.50 to buy and rent discs this year — down from $133.21 last year and $149.53 in 2010. The average home spent $206.78 in 2006, when Blu-ray discs were introduced. Looked at another way, people spent $8.8B last year to buy packaged videos, down 12% vs 2010. That will keep falling to $5.4B in 2016 — which IHS notes is “the level in 1997 when DVDs were first launched.”

Meanwhile, consumers paid $5.7B to rent discs last year, down 7.3%. Much of that drop was due to the cut backs at Blockbuster, as well as the snafus at Netflix’ DVD rental business. With that largely behind us, and rental kiosks becoming more popular, disc rentals will increase slightly to $6B in 2016. IHS says that kiosks accounted for 34% of disc rental spending last year, and will grow to 41% this year, and hit 52% in 2015.

The silver lining for studios is that the online business is growing. “If revenue were to be added from other viewing options such as video-on-demand, Internet-based sales and rentals, and subscription streaming from providers like Netflix and Hulu Plus…consumer spending across all outlets of home video would amount to nearly $17.2B,” says IHS senior analyst for U.S. video Michael Arrington.

In a separate report, IHS said that spending for online movies more than doubled to $992M last year, mostly due to the growth of Netflix’s streaming service — which passed Apple to be the No. 1 online movie provider. Web spending is expected to double again this year but then slow, the company says, unless a company such as HBO offers a standalone streaming service or someone offers a Web-based replacement for pay TV.

Friday, June 1, 2012

Forecast: 'Snow White' Goes to War This Weekend

The first weekend of June is typically a tough time to open a movie, given the usual strength of the late May holdovers. How fortuitous, then, that the only major studio release this weekend—Snow White and the Huntsman—is opening on the heels of MIB 3, which is performing fine enough but isn't sucking all the oxygen out of the air. This should give Snow White plenty of room to breathe at its 3,772 locations, and it will likely claim the top spot at the box office this weekend.

Last year, both Universal and Relativity announced Snow White projects around the same time, and there was subsequently a bit of release date musical chairs between the two competing titles. Ultimately, Relativity won out on the release date battle by pushing their movie Mirror Mirror so early that there was literally no way Snow White and the Huntsman could be finished in time to beat it to the gate. Mirror Mirror turned out to be a non-issue for Huntsman, though—the movie has earned just $62.4 million at the domestic box office, and was so completely different in tone and visual palette that it didn't provide much of a conflict.

From the epic, visually-arresting first teaser trailer, it was clear that Snow White and the Huntsman was going to be aiming for a much older audience than Mirror Mirror. Subsequent material has continued that push, with the latest round of commercials showcasing the bold interpretation of story elements like "The Forest," "The Dark Army," "The Troll," and more. This has clearly been designed to target young men who drive box office receipts for dark fantasy movies, but as a result the Snow White character (played by Twilight Kristen Stewart) has been fairly marginalized. This suggests Universal is banking on women turning out because Snow White is in the title, though assuming the target audience is already on board has backfired recently (What to Expect When You're Expecting with its "Dudes Group" campaign).

Universal is anticipating low-to-mid $30 millions based on tracking. They have already committed to developing a sequel, though obviously the future of that depends largely on the movie's box office performance. Even if the movie doesn't perform great domestically, though, its epic scale, strong visuals and straightforward narrative should translate to strong business overseas, and its kicking off its foreign run this weekend in 45 territories including South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom.

Mexican war movie For Greater Glory also opens nationwide this weekend at 757 locations. The movie tells the story of the Cristero War (1926-29), and should appeal to Catholic, Hispanic audiences. Arc Entertainment has bought enough ad space that awareness is high, though its' still a niche product that could have trouble reaching the Top 10.

Weekend Forecast (June 1-3)
Snow White - $39.8 million
MIB 3 - $26.2 million (-52%)
The Avengers - $21.5 million (-41%)

Bar for Success
Universal Pictures opened Robin Hood to $36.1 million two years ago—it's hard to see a reason why Snow White and the Huntsman should open below that mark.

George Lucas announces retirement

One of Hollywood's most iconic directors and producers has reportedly called it quits. George Lucas recently told Empire magazine that he plans on leaving his company Lucasfilms and retiring to spend more time on making movies as a hobby.

Although Lucas may not get behind the camera for any more "Star Wars" or "Indiana Jones" movies, he did leave the door open for some more projects in the future. However, whether or not they make it big screen is up in the air, he says.

"I've always wanted to make movies that were more experimental in nature and not have to worry about showing them in movie theaters," he told the magazine.

Lucas' retirement from the movie industry may not come as much of a surprise to some people. The last film he directed was the 2005 hit "Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith." Since then, he has served as a producer on several films including 2010's "Red Tails."

Whether his retirement is permanent remains to be seen, but fans looking to take at trip down memory lane can check out some of Lucas' best movies including "American Graffiti" and "Labyrinth," which he produced.